Although it has only been seven months since the end of 2023, so much has changed across the international education sector. Student application caps and government policies concerning post-graduation work opportunities have slowed student mobility to the 鈥淏ig Four鈥�.1 Yet non-Anglophone destinations are on the rise and could be poised to take advantage of persistent high demand for study abroad programs.
Taking into account all the developing shifts and trends of 2024, read on for a look back at our 2024 Trends Report: Alignment for Student and Institution Success. Here鈥檚 what we predicted for 2024 that has come true, what major changes challenged our expectations, and what we anticipate for the international education sector throughout the rest of 2024.
Key Insights at a Glance
- 2023 set new records for global student mobility with international student populations in the United States, Canada, and Australia all growing by at least 11% from 2022.
- In the first half of 2024, international student visa caps in Canada and Australia, as well as policy changes in the UK, have shifted student interest towards the US and non-Anglophone destinations such as Germany.
- The second half of 2024 is set to define international education for years to come, with a new UK government, a US presidential election, Canada鈥檚 cap review, and Australia鈥檚 cap plan rollout all on the horizon.
Demand for International Education Surged in 2023
Interest in studying abroad hit new levels in 2023. As we highlighted in last year鈥檚 Trends Report, we expected this demand to increase student interest in non-Anglophone destination markets. At the same time, when we looked at student mobility trends at the end of 2023, Canada, the United States, and Australia were poised to set new all-time highs for student visa applications.2 Meanwhile, the United Kingdom was on track for a year-over-year application decline.
Visa application data released by each country鈥檚 governments after we published our Trends Report proved that these expectations held true. The chart below shows visa application volumes for each big four destination country in 2022 and 2023:3
The US, Australia, and Canada did indeed set new records for student visa application volumes in 2023. Each grew by at least 11% year-over-year, with Australia leading the way (up 21%).
After two strong years of post-pandemic recovery, the UK was only the only major English language destination market to see a decline in demand in 2023. UK study visa applications dropped by 3% year-over-year, falling to 455,000 in 2023. The UK wasn鈥檛 just an outlier among the big four: it was an outlier among European destinations.
Germany, the Netherlands, France, and Spain all saw strong international student growth in 2023. Interest in studying in Germany was especially notable as our Spring 2024 Student Pulse Survey showed that 25% of respondents were interested in studying in Germany.
Of particular note, the number of has grown substantially in recent years. Over 40,000 Indian students enrolled at German universities in 2024, and smaller destination markets like Ireland have attracted thriving Indian student populations as well.
Government Policy Changes Limiting International Student Demand in 2024
As the calendar turned from 2023 to 2024, the outlook for the international education sector quickly turned from promise to worry, especially for the big four. After years of unprecedented growth鈥攐utside of the pandemic downturns鈥攑opular destination governments have introduced new international education policies in 2024 that are impacting student demand.
Since January 2024, the Canadian government has announced key policy changes including a study permit cap, a minimum proof of funds increase, and a revision to PGWP eligibility. By April, IRCC announced that most higher education programs would be subject to the permit cap,4 limiting new study permit approvals to 292,000 for 2024. As a result, student interest in studying in Canada has dropped considerably: study permit application volumes were down nearly 50% in the first five months of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023.
Check out our blog to learn more about recent policy changes in Canada and Australia and their potential impact on prospective international students.
The Australian government introduced their in December 2023, subsequently implementing several new policies. Higher English-language proficiency levels, increased financial capacity requirements, and a new Genuine Student requirement have all rolled out since then. The Australian government also proposed 鈥渟oft鈥� international student caps for 2024, although allocations and effective dates were pushed out to January 2025 after sector feedback. But Australian institutions are already feeling the impact. Visa applications for Australian studies dropped nearly 30% from Jan to May 2024 compared to the same months in 2023.
Student interest in the UK has also experienced a drop in 2024, worsening the decline observed in 2023. Prior to the recent UK election, the government revised the international student dependents policy, a change which caused a significant decline in Nigerian student applications. For many other major student populations, uncertainty surrounding the Graduate Route鈥攑rior to the 鈥攍ikely caused students to consider alternative study abroad destinations.
While these policy shifts all aim to strengthen the international education sector and increase the quality of student outcomes, they are negatively affecting how students feel about these popular destinations. As such, the first half of 2024 has been defined by changes which could cause the first drop in global international student enrollment during a non-pandemic year in recent history.
Changes to Post-Graduation Work Opportunities on the Horizon
When it comes to post-graduation employment, many destination governments have focused on increased alignment between student flows and labour market needs. The demand for STEM and health care graduates is projected to remain paramount for the next decade. Canada, Australia, and the UK have made changes to their post-graduation work visa systems in recent years to allow graduates from these programs to stay longer in-country and gain work experience.
Yet efforts to prioritize work permits for graduates entering high-vacancy fields and limiting permits for other fields鈥攚hich the Canadian government is currently considering as part of their 鈥攃ould further weaken student interest. After all, students increasingly report that post-graduation work opportunities are a top priority:
Destination countries continuously evolve and reevaluate their past policies and programs to ensure they鈥檙e offering prospective students high-quality outcomes. But greater access to opportunities for students to work post-graduation provides positive and impactful benefits to students, their communities, and local economies.
Housing and Labour Concerns Persist for International Students
Despite new government policies in major destinations aimed at addressing chronic issues such as housing shortages and post-graduation employment, these issues require long-term planning and execution to fix.
As our Trends Report showed, housing shortages remain a critical issue for every destination market:
Experts project that the Canadian housing shortage will reach 3.5 million units by 2030,5 while the UK6 and US7 already face backlogs and shortages of 4.3 million and 6.8 million, respectively.
To alleviate housing shortages, many institutions and governments are building student accommodations on or near campus. These purpose-built student accommodations require significant planning and collaboration between institutions, local governments, and the private sector. But governments have recognized the issue and are stepping up their support. Since the release of last year鈥檚 Trends Report, the Canadian government has enabled institutions, non-profits, and private companies to apply for low-cost government financing to . And, in the UK, the new Labour government committed to in the next five years, which could help alleviate student housing pressure.
Expectations for International Education in the Second Half of 2024
Looking ahead to the second half of 2024, it鈥檚 clear that change will remain the only constant. While many policies have already been enacted in the last six months, more still are under consideration or may arise in the next six months. And, the results of policies in one country are likely to influence their development in another. For example, Australian policymakers will likely consider the impact of Canada鈥檚 2024 student caps when developing their 2025 plans.
For the UK and the US, anticipation of potential shifts is building, though 2024 election cycles may mean there are no immediate shifts on the horizon. The UK only just emerged from an early election, which took place slightly later than we predicted in our Trends Report. Keir Starmer鈥檚 Labour Party released little in the way of specific campaign promises or policies towards international education, and they鈥檙e unlikely to make any drastic changes over the next few months.
In our Trends Report, 天美麻豆 UK Advisory Board Member Nick Hillman shared that 鈥淔or Labour, the main risk of announcing detailed policies might be, 鈥榃e go down in the polls rather than up in the polls.鈥� If I were a betting man, I would bet on there being no real substantial changes to the student migration rules, even with a government change.鈥�
Meanwhile, the US is ramping up their election cycle, preparing for a national election on November 5. Interestingly, it appears that neither a Democratic or Republican victory would influence the US鈥檚 surging popularity among international students. A found that most students say the upcoming presidential election has no impact on their motivation to study in the US.
While demand for Canada, Australia, and the UK has taken a step backward in 2024, international students remain highly motivated to study abroad, giving rise to more non-Anglophone destinations as alternative study locations. Destinations including , , , , , , and many more have developed plans to increase their international student populations, potentially redirecting students away from the big four.
Our last 天美麻豆 Recruitment Partner (RP) Pulse Survey showed that Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States were all less attractive to prospective students in 2023 compared to 2022.
Aligning the Sector Toward Student and Institution Success
As we highlighted in our Trends Report, alignment on student and institution success is needed now more than ever. Everyone involved in international education鈥攆rom institutions and governments to recruitment partners and students themselves鈥攈as a role to play in building and maintaining pathways for students to realize their study abroad dreams. The benefits that students provide to their destination countries, institutions, and communities is critical for global collaboration, innovation, and growth.
This fall could be a defining period for many institutions, when a new class of international students will arrive on campuses around the world. In a landscape of shifting government policies, institutions will need to send a clear message that international students are welcome, that they are part of the community, and that they will be set up for success. Before students arrive, institutions need to ensure that prospective newcomers are informed about housing support, on- and off-campus employment services, and connections to local community groups. And, once those students are on campus, institutions need to ensure they are supported throughout their educational journey. Every international student deserves the opportunity to thrive during and after their studies.
Governments and policy makers also need to take time to reflect on the impact of recent changes. Many of the shifts made can help create a more reliable, more equitable, and more sustainable international education sector. Yet in a world where students have more choices for high-quality education, there is also a need for balance. Balancing better control of student flows with positive student outcomes. Balancing labour market needs with student desires. And balancing current limitations with future possibilities.
New policy changes have changed the international education landscape around the world, but we at 天美麻豆 remain dedicated to ensuring student mobility and success. We work hand-in-hand with our partners to promote a positive experience for international students throughout their journey, from application to enrollment. And we鈥檙e committed to continuing these efforts, regardless of what the rest of 2024 has in store.
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FOOTNOTES:
1. 鈥淏ig Four鈥� destinations include the most popular countries for post-secondary education in English: Australia, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom.
2. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enroll in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is approved for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies.
3. All Australian student visa data sourced from the and only includes subclass 500, 570鈥�576 visas granted to primary applicants located outside Australia. All Canadian study permit data provided courtesy of . Data includes new study permits only. All US student visa data used in this report is sourced from the and includes F-1 visa data only. US government fiscal years run from October of the previous year to September of the given year. All UK study visa data used in this report is sourced from the . Data includes main applicants only.
4. K-12, master鈥檚, and doctoral programs are all exempt from the Canadian study permit cap.
5. Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, . September 2023.
