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Chinese students are integral to Australia’s international education sector. They contribute significantly to the diversity goals of Australian universities and to the Australian economy at large. But how has Australia’s largest student population fared since borders reopened Down Under? Should institutions be concerned, or does the future look bright?

In today’s ApplyInsights, we delve into the latest student visa trends for Chinese students. We compare the number of granted visas during the first nine months of fiscal year 2022/23 to pre-pandemic full-year totals. We touch on the number of applications lodged at the start of calendar year 2023, which could provide a clue about what the sector may expect after China ended its zero-COVID policy in late 2022. And we look at where and what Chinese students study in Australia.

Let’s dive in.

Student Visas Granted to Chinese Students Could Set New Record High in 2022/23

Fiscal year 2022/23 will be the first full year unaffected by Australia’s closed-border response to the pandemic since 2018/19. The chart below allows you to filter between all available months and just July through March for each fiscal year:²

From July through March, over 71,600 Chinese students were granted an Australian student visa in 2022/23. This already surpasses the past three full fiscal years.

Fiscal year 2017/18 represents the full-year peak of student visas granted to Chinese students. Comparing only the months of July to March, visas granted to Chinese students grew by 14% in 2022/23 over 2017/18. This puts the current fiscal year on pace to set a new full-year high.

The rebound of Australia’s Chinese student population is great news for the country’s higher education level. Chinese students generally gravitate toward higher education over vocational education and training courses (VET) or English-language intensive courses (ELICOS). In fact, higher education routinely accounts for over 80% of all Chinese student visas. So far in 2022/23, higher education represents 84% of all student visas granted to Chinese students.

The overall grant rate for Chinese students is regularly above 95%, and regularly higher than the average grant rate for all international students.

Number of Applications Lodged From Chinese Students Spikes from January to March

There’s even more in the data to suggest a new record high is on the horizon. The bar chart below shows the number of student visa applications lodged from Chinese students during the first nine months of each fiscal year since 2017/18:

With over 28,700 applications lodged, fiscal year 2022/23 topped all other years for the months of January to March. In fact, this fiscal year surpassed the previous high by 8%. The spike raises the question: is this the result of China ending its zero-COVID policy in late 2022?

While it’s too early to say one way or the other, perhaps one telling clue is in a comparison of Chinese students to all students.³

After Australia reopened its borders in late 2021, student applications flooded into Australia from January to March. The number of applications lodged was up 50% for these months in 2021/22 compared to 2020/21. But applications from Chinese students lagged considerably, growing by only 19% over this period.

Fast forward one year, and the growth rate of Chinese applications for the same months in 2022/23 (+41%) is double that of the previous year. Also, the growth rate of Chinese applications during these months has outpaced the growth rate of all combined markets (+36%).

Again, it’s too early to say that this spike is the result of China’s zero-COVID policy ending. However, it’s the earliest data set available that may hint at the future of one of the world’s largest student populations, and the early trends look promising.

Where Do Chinese Students Study in Australia?

Are Chinese students spread out across Australia, or do they gravitate toward a certain location? The map below shows the number of student visas granted to Chinese students since 2017/18:

New South Wales has accounted for a larger proportion of Australia’s Chinese student population every year since 2017/18. Over 29,800 Chinese students were granted a student visa to study in New South Wales from January to March 2023. That’s 42% of all Australian student visas granted to Chinese students. This proportion is up six percentage points from full-year 2017/18.

Victoria and Queensland are the second and third most popular Australian states among Chinese students. But both states remain far below the number of students granted a visa in full-year 2017/18. As of the end of March, Victoria was 28% below its full-year 2017/18 total and Queensland was 16% below. For comparison, New South Wales was only 2% below full-year 2017/18.

While every Australian state and territory except for Tasmania has already surpassed full-year 2021/22 totals for student visas granted to Chinese students, only New South Wales and South Australia project to reach new full-year highs by the end of 2022/23.

Looking Ahead

In our five predictions for 2023, we noted a softening of Chinese students headed to Canada, the UK, and the US. Australia appears to be bucking this global trend.

Indeed, the future looks bright for Australia, with many positive trends developing for its largest international student population. The number of student visa applications and student visas granted are up for Chinese students in 2022/23. It’s worth flagging, however, that these students are concentrating in New South Wales at higher rates than in the past.

Students and their recruitment counsellors should check out ÌìÃÀÂ鶹’s guide on deciding where to study in Australia. The incentivizes studying in regional Australia.

One of the biggest questions facing the international education sector at large has been whether the slow post-pandemic rebound of Chinese student populations was the result of fading study abroad interest or a by-product of the country’s zero-COVID policy. While it is too early to draw definitive conclusions, the early data for calendar-year 2023 hints that the latter may be most likely.

Institutions can prepare for a renewed student corridor by improving seating capacity, housing resources, and career development opportunities. Affordability and post-graduation work opportunities are top student concerns, so the institutions that can leverage these support structures for students will be the ones that set themselves apart from the competition in the future.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All data courtesy of the . All data reported according to Australian governmental financial years, which span from July of one year to June of the next year (for example, July 2021 to June 2022 was the 2021/22 year). The data used for this article includes subclass 500 and subclass 570 to 576 visas granted to primary applicants only.

2. As of the time of writing, the latest available data for fiscal year 2022/23 was for July to March.

3. Complicating matters are China’s , and between the two countries.