The number of international students in Canada as of December 31, 2023, followed the trends we saw in 2022: the overall numbers went up, with Ontario continuing to host more than half of all students in the country.1 But these trends will be significantly altered in 2024.
That鈥檚 because, in January, the Canadian government introduced a cap on international student applications for the next two years. The federal government , which is expected to limit the number of new student visa2 approvals to about 360,000 in 2024鈥攁 reduction of 35% compared to 2023. Study permits will be allocated based on each province鈥檚 population. This means that, for international students, applying to diverse locations within Canada will be more important than ever before. Master鈥檚, PhD, and K-12 students are exempt from the cap, as are current study permit holders and those looking to extend their studies.
The cap will cause Canada鈥檚 international student population to drop in the coming years, but where and by how much? Read on to learn more about key trends in Canada鈥檚 international education sector in 2023, and the ways in which the government鈥檚 new policies might change the landscape moving forward.
Key Insights at a Glance
- Over 1 million international students held a valid Canadian study permit in 2023, an increase of 29% over the previous year.3
- 8 of Canada鈥檚 top 10 fastest-growing student populations came from African countries.4 This could change under the new cap, as institutions may be disincentivized from accepting applications from countries with historically low approval rates.
- Ontario accounted for 52% of all international students in Canada in 2023. But our internal projections for each province鈥檚 new application cap show that approvals for affected study levels in Ontario could drop by over 35% in 2024.5
- K-12 and postsecondary studies both grew by 28% in 2023 over the previous years. Both levels should anticipate fewer students in 2024.
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Canada鈥檚 International Student Body Grew More Diverse in 2023
Over 1 million international students held a valid Canadian student visa in 2023. Let鈥檚 take a look at how the country鈥檚 international ed sector evolved over the past seven years:
In 2023, the number of international students in Canada increased by 29% over the previous year. What鈥檚 more, Canada鈥檚 international student body has grown more diverse since the pandemic. Indian and Chinese students together accounted for more than half of international students in Canada in each of the past eight years. This trend peaked in 2019, when the two nationalities accounted for over 56% of international students in Canada. But since the pandemic, the trend has slowly shifted toward greater diversity. India and China together accounted for under 51% of all international students in Canada in 2023.
The chart below shows the proportional makeup of Canada鈥檚 international student population since 2017:
Growth in Canada鈥檚 international education sector has typically been driven by Indian and Chinese students, particularly by the former in recent years. The total number of Indian students in Canada grew 34% in 2023 compared to 2022. However, applications from Indian students dropped in the back half of 2023, and the cap is certain to depress demand still further. The precise impact of these many changes on Indian student numbers is difficult to predict beyond a significant drop in total population.
Which student populations drove diversity in Canada in 2023? Of the student populations with over 2,500 valid study permits, Guinean, Ghanaian, and Nepali students were the fastest growing in 2023. The total number of Guinean students grew by 180% compared to 2022. Over the same period, the number of Ghanaian students in Canada grew by 167% and the number of Nepali students increased by 166%.
Nigeria deserves highlighting as well. The number of Nigerian students in the country more than doubled last year. Nigerians accounted for over 4% of Canada鈥檚 total international student population in 2023. Additionally, UK dependents policy shifts could lead to increased demand from prospective master鈥檚 students from Nigeria. The master鈥檚 level falls outside of the scope of the IRCC鈥檚 recent policy changes. As such, Nigerian students will be a critical source of students for Canada in the changed landscape of 2024 and 2025.
The table below shows the fastest-growing student populations in 2023 compared to the previous year:
Notably, 8 of Canada鈥檚 top 10 fastest-growing student populations came from African countries. But it remains too early to forecast exactly how these trends will shift in 2024 in light of the new student cap, proof of finance requirements, trusted institution framework, and post-graduation work permit (PGWP) eligibility restrictions.
One potential downside about these new policies worth flagging is that institutions could shy away from African applicants due to their low (but rising) approval rate compared to the rest of the world. Because schools will be allotted a limited number of applications to accept, they could feel disincentivized from accepting applications from countries with historically low approval rates. This would be a tremendous setback for those institutions and Canada at large. As such, we highly encourage institutions to work alongside 天美麻豆 and not abandon African students. For the 2023 intake semesters, 71% of 天美麻豆鈥檚 applicants from Africa were approved for a study permit.6
The Ongoing Centralization of International Students in Ontario in 2023
The Canadian government鈥檚 recently announced student cap . Here鈥檚 the breakdown of international students in Canadian provinces in 2023:
The topline takeaway continues to be Ontario鈥檚 momentous growth. Ontario accounted for over half of all study permit holders for the first time ever in 2022, and it maintained that trend in 2023 by hosting 52% of international students in Canada.
Ontario will naturally welcome more students than other provinces simply due to its higher number of institutions. But Ontario also grew at a faster rate than most other provinces, which is stunning given its already large international student population. From 2021 to 2023, Ontario鈥檚 growth rate was among the top four provinces each year.
According to Statistics Canada, international students accounted for 23% of all postsecondary enrolments in Ontario for the 2021/22 academic year.7 This was the second-highest proportion among all provinces, behind only Prince Edward Island (25%):
But the temporary application cap will significantly shift the landscape of international education in Canada, including where students choose to study. The chart below shows our internal projections for the provincial application allotments, alongside publicly confirmed numbers.
Note that these are internal estimates only, containing certain underlying assumptions due to continuing data availability limitations regarding the allocation of provincial attestation letters and associated processes as of March 14, 2024.
K-12 Fastest-Growing Study Level in 2023, but Here’s Why We Expect a Drop in 2024 Despite Cap Exemption
In 2023, Canada鈥檚 K-12 level grew by 42% over the previous year. This was the fastest growth rate of all Canadian study levels. The chart below shows Canada’s study level trends since 2017:
Over 131,000 international students held a study permit at the primary and secondary levels in 2023. But we anticipate that this number will drop in 2024. K-12 students are exempt from the government鈥檚 new application cap, but many of these children arrive as dependents of post-secondary students. As such, fewer parents studying Canadian postsecondary programs will naturally mean fewer K-12 students.
We also expect that the K-12 level to decline鈥攄espite its cap exemption鈥攂ecause of changes to the open work permit for spouses. . If spouses can鈥檛 get work permits, they鈥檒l be highly unlikely to join their partner in Canada. Students in the study levels affected by the cap are effectively being asked to leave their family behind to come study in Canada, or to find another study destination altogether.
Key Takeaways
In 2023, Canada continued to build on the international education trend lines that began post-pandemic. The total number of valid study permit holders grew. Every province hosted more students than the year prior, as did every study level.
But these trends look backwards. Canada鈥檚 international ed sector will shift significantly in 2024 and 2025 under the country鈥檚 many new policies. These changes may ultimately ensure that the international students who do come to Canada receive a higher-quality educational experience. But schools and recruitment partners will need to be agile and proactive during this transition to best support new students.
天美麻豆 partners can rest assured that qualified students will continue to achieve their Canadian study dreams with the help of our platform.
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FOOTNOTES:
1. Throughout this article, given years refer to the number of students holding a valid study permit as of December 31 in that year. When we reference international students in Canada throughout the article, we are referencing the number of students who held a valid study permit as of December 31 in that year.
2. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enroll in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is accepted for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies.
3. All data courtesy of , except where otherwise noted.
5. Disclaimer: Our projections for 2024 are estimates only calculated with available 2023 IRCC data and Statistics Canada Q4 population data, and contain certain underlying assumptions due to continuing data availability limitations as of February 9, 2024. 天美麻豆 is not liable for accuracy of the projections.
6. 天美麻豆 approval rate is a conservative estimate based on application results provided by recruitment partners and students.
7. Data courtesy of . Note that enrolments are based on students enrolled in a postsecondary institution at the time of the school鈥檚 fall snapshot date, and that enrolments are based on program counts rather than student counts. This means that a student enrolled in more than one program as of the snapshot date will have all of their programs included in the count. The latest data is for the 2021/22 academic year. Also, this enrolment data does not include private for-profit institutions.
